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Today’s model runs continue the trend of a significant winter storm impacting our region on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. The storm will begin forming in the deep South late Sunday and Monday and then make its way into our region. While I am not yet ready to get into specific snow totals, this storm has the potential to be as impactful as some of the most famous storms to impact our region (1996,1978,1888, etc.).  For now, we are in wait and see mode, but at this time it is almost certain that we will be impacted by a strong winter storm.

The other event of note is the unseasonable cold that can be expected over the next several days. Daytime high temperatures may not make it above freezing for several days at least. In addition, nighttime lows will be in the teens.

Certainly a wild few days of winter weather to come.

Tonight is the first in what is likely to be many updates on a possible snowstorm for next Tuesday. However, before I discuss that that storm further, let me briefly touch on the light snow for tomorrow. Snow will begin overnight before sunrise and continue through mid-day, tapering off by 1PM at the latest. Total snowfall will be in the 3-5″ range with more accumulation on grassy surfaces than on roadways. Temperatures will be above freezing prior to the start of the snow limiting accumulation on paved surfaces. Additionally, the further east you are the higher totals you can expect. After the snow ends, temperatures will remain below freezing through the weekend.

Then comes Monday night into Tuesday. As of this afternoon’s model runs, all the major models: UKIE, EURO, GFS, JMA, CMC, etc, are in agreement that a significant storm will form off the East Coast late Monday or early Tuesday. In the weather world this is still a lifetime away, but it is becoming clear that a storm will likely bring snows to our area on Tuesday. The big question is how much? At this time that is hard to say, models have been showing anywhere from 6-10″ to a 2ft+ snow storm. We likely will not know how much until Sunday at the earliest. But the key takeaway at this time is that the potential exists for a major snowstorm in our area beginning late Monday or Tuesday. More updates to come…

The snowstorm that we have been tracking is well underway throughout the area. Snow will continue to fall throughout the region until this afternoon. The storm will slowly begin to wind down from west to east throughout the afternoon. We continue to be on track for a 10-15″ snowfall throughout the area, with some areas on Long Island exceeding the 15″. Over the next few hours everyone can expect whiteout conditions, and possibly thunder snow. As a matter of fact there was thunder observed in Suffolk a few minutes ago.

Enjoy the storm and stay safe!

As of this afternoons model suite, we remain on track for a major snowstorm beginning tomorrow before sunrise. Snow will begin sometime after 2-3am and pick up in intensity by sunrise. Most areas can expect at least 10-15 inches of snow. However, there will be some areas that recieve over 18″ if they get into the heavier banding. The snow should begin to taper off by mid to late afternoon leaving behind very cold air. Temperatures on Friday may not get out of the teens.

I will update later tonight as the Hi-Res short range models continue to come into range. This is a storm that could easily outperform current forecasts due to the dynamics involved.

Edit: Special note per my family request: The city (Manhattan) can expect to see about a foot as well. The interesting piece to this event is this is likely to stick even on the avenues of Manhattan due to the rate at which the snow will be falling.

Below are the RGEM and NAM models, both of which have continued to increase snowfall totals over our area today.

I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news (Thanks Berg), it looks like the storm is going to exceed my previous forecast. The models are continuing to increase snowfall totals throughout our region. The key to this is a stronger storm forming off the coast tomorrow morning. Based on latest guidance, I am upping my snowfall forecast for our region to 10-15″ with a possibility of more (18 inches+) depending on where the banding sets up. Many have asked for localized forecasts, in the case of this storm the distribution throughout the region should be fairly even within the forecasted range. Except for those areas that end up under heavy banding, which is always very difficult if not impossible to predict. In addition to the snow amounts, the rate at which the snow will fall will be impressive as well, with rates up to three inches an hour. Whiteout conditions will be likely from mid-morning into the afternoon.

Timing: Snow will begin by 3-4am and pickup in intensity by daybreak. Snow will continue throughout the day and begin to taper off by about 3-4pm in the afternoon.

Temperatures will begin dropping late tonight and by tomorrow temperatures will drop into the uppers teens to low 20’s. Friday will remain cold as well. Therefore, do not expect the snow to go anywhere.

Models this evening continue to hold steady in regards to the expected snowfall. The NAM shows our area receiving anywhere from 8-12″ of snow, and the latest run of the RGEM shows some areas receiving over a foot of snow. For now I am holding steady with a forecast of 6-12″ throughout the area. I’ll post more localized specifics tomorrow once we’re closer to the start time. In terms of timing, the snow will begin before sunrise on Thursday, with the heaviest snow falling from 6am on. The snow should taper off from West to East by the mid-afternoon.

More updates to come.