Month: December 2025

I only have time for a quick update this morning on the road to NYC:

As of this morning we remain on track for an area wide snowfall of 5-10”. You will notice that I am being broad in expected accumulations as there are still two camps of models. Camp 1 including the Euro is holding fast on lower totals of 5” max. While a majority of others are on the higher end of 8-10” across the area. I lean towards splitting the difference and would expect 6 or 7 inches with a chance of exceeding that.

Snow will begin this afternoon around sundown or just after. Expect the heaviest snow later this evening and overnight. Snow should end from Northwest to Southeast by sunrise.

The models have come into much better agreement overnight, and confidence is growing that we’re looking at a solid winter storm for Friday night into Saturday morning. Both the Euro and GFS now show a widespread 6 to 10 inches of snowfall across Long Island and NYC. The RDPS is close to that as well at around 6 inches. The NAM is still insisting the storm tracks much farther north, but at this stage in the game the NAM often likes to go rogue before coming back to reality. The newly-arriving FV3 matches the Euro and GFS pretty closely, with snow starting earlier in NYC—around 5 PM—and tapering off near sunrise on Saturday. It also paints that same broad 6 to 10 inch swath over the region.

For Long Island and the city, that means a significant snowfall is looking more likely. Snow should begin between 5 and 7 PM depending on location, quickly becoming steady and then heavy through the nighttime hours. With temperatures staying well below freezing from start to finish, this will be an all-snow event—no rain line or sleet drama to worry about. Travel Friday night could become hazardous pretty quickly once the heavier bands move in.

My forecast remains 5 to 10 inches area-wide, with the highest totals likely in western Long Island and NYC. Suffolk County still looks to sit closer to the lower end of that range. The dividing line between the “wow, that’s a lot of snow” zone and the “ugh, we missed the best stuff” zone appears to set up somewhere near the Nassau/Suffolk border. As always, that exact line will shift as we get closer, and it only takes a small move east or west to change totals for a lot of people.

I’ll keep tracking and will post again later today or tomorrow morning as the picture sharpens. In the meantime, enjoy the holiday week and prepare the shovels—or kids—accordingly. Snow is coming. 

I’m back from a little summer hiatus (and yes, I managed to miss the first winter storm… because life has a habit of scheduling itself like a chaotic toddler).

Here’s what we’re working with: A winter weather event is expected Friday night into Saturday morning.

As of this morning, the major forecast models are on the same page that accumulating snow is likely, kicking off early Friday evening and continuing into Saturday morning.

Where they don’t agree (yet) is the total snowfall:

• European model (Euro): roughly 3–4 inches area-wide

• GFS (American model) + CMC (Canadian model): closer to around 7 inches area-wide

So yes, the snow is coming. The only argument left is whether it’s a “shovel a little” storm or a “shovel and pop an Advil” storm.

One other important ingredient: It’ll be more than cold enough for all snow. Temperatures should sit in the mid to upper 20s for most of the event. The air higher up in the atmosphere looks to be very cold, which matters because colder storms can produce fluffier snow that piles up faster. If it does end up colder as forecast, would mean more accumulation for the same amount of moisture (higher ratios). We’ll have a better read on that as we get closer to Friday.

I’ll post another update later today or this evening.

Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates! 🎄❄️