Month: January 2021

We continue to be on track for a significant storm to impact our region beginning later this afternoon. As I indicated last night, and confirmed by overnight model runs and model runs this morning, expected snowfall has increased. As of this morning, all models have come in to alignment for a regionwide snowfall of 15-20″+. Parts of NYC and areas north and west likely will see over 20″ with some areas of interior NJ receiving as much as 30″. 

Snow should begin to overspread the region by late this afternoon in to early evening, it will continue overnight tonight and taper off sometime on Tuesday morning. During the day into the evening on Monday snowfall rates may exceed 2-3″ per hour with whiteout conditions. Additionally, winds especially on Long Island may gust over 40-50 MPH.

This will be by far the largest and most impactful snowstorm our area has seen in several years.

Just a quick update as the models start to roll in for the night:

The NAM and RGEM just came in and changed the ballgame for how much snow may be looking at with both showing AT LEAST 15-20” if not more area wide. There are still several other models left to run this evening, and I am not yet ready to change my final call but be aware that we may be looking at more snow than initially expected. I’ll post a final call in the morning based on the overnight modeling and trends that we are seeing…

Sorry for the delay in providing updates, I have been actively tracking the storm but life has gotten in the way of posting updates. But do not fear, I will be with you throughout this weekend. (Sorry to my wife and daughter for disappearing to track this weekend.) This storm is lining up to be a classic for our area, with a key difference being the duration. In recent years our storms have been in and out in under 12 hours. However, this one looks to be a long duration event starting late Sunday evening and continuing through Tuesday morning. As a matter of fact, some models including the latest NAM run are indicating snow will continue through midday Tuesday. 

Overall this storm will drop anywhere from 10-15 inches regionwide, with the potential for some areas to exceed 15″ depending on where banding sets up. By the way of example, the 3K NAM out to the end of it’s run at hour 60 has around 15 inches of snow for Long Island, and it is still snowing at that time indicating the chance for some areas to possibly hit 20″. However, at this time there is limited support for that outcome with only the Parallel GFS model supporting this outcome. The regular GFS and EURO models both are in the 10-15 range for our region. 

I will keep you updated as more model runs come out later today and we start zeroing in on where the banding will setup. 

More on this later today but there is a storm brewing for Sunday through Tuesday. As of now it’s looking like it may have foot plus potential. Stay tuned!