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I hate to be the bearer of bad news on this first day of 2018 (ok maybe I enjoy it a bit), but we are potentially in the path of a large storm for Thursday morning/day/night. As of this afternoon, the weather models are in two camps with the Global models portraying a light to moderate event for our region. While the Hi-Resolution “Meso” models, are beginning to hint at a far more significant event. We are currently at the long range end of the Hi-Res models, but in the past they have picked up on some of our bigger events that the global models were not enthused with. I am not yet ready to commit one way or the other at this point in time. There are still a few major wild cards, with the biggest being some energy that is dropping down from the North Pole region that will not be sampled at all for at least another day. The strength and positioning of this energy will make the difference between a small event and a major snowstorm. I’ll continue to provide updates over the next few days.

As a side note, the cold we are experiencing likely will not end until after the weekend. Keep warm everyone.

Here are a few sim radars from the Hi-Res modeling. Note that these models are typically most accurate within 48 hours of an event, but as I said above they often can identify important features that the global models may be missing.

We are still on track for an early winter snowstorm, and as I’m sure many are aware, our region is under either a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning. Snow should begin in the area between 6 and 9 AM. The snow will start light, and probably not stick much initially, but the snow will pick up in intensity throughout the morning into the afternoon. The heaviest snow will be from late morning into the afternoon. Snow will become lighter and slowly taper off on Saturday night.  In general you can expect 3-6″ of snow throughout the area. Those in NYC will likely see on the low end and possibly closer to a 1-3 slushy snow type of event. In Suffolk you should expect towards the higher end of the forecast. The RGEM, which typically performs well shows over 6″ in Suffolk, but that may not come to fruition due to some issues in the upper atmosphere where snow forms which may reduce totals. On Sunday, temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 30’s so the snow should begin to melt fairly quickly and not immediately freeze over. However, Sunday night into Monday temperatures will likely drop below freezing so be sure to get outside Sunday and clear away the snow/slush before it freezes over.