Month: February 2025

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Storm Update: Why the Big Snowstorm is Now Unlikely

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As of this afternoon, the winter storm we’ve been tracking since Friday appears increasingly unlikely to materialize. While early projections suggested a significant snowfall event, the latest model trends continue to weaken the system—some even indicating a complete miss. What once looked like a blockbuster storm is now shaping up to be, at best, a minor inconvenience.

The key shift in the forecast comes down to how energy over the Pacific is interacting with the atmosphere. Initially, conditions seemed favorable for a strong low-pressure system to develop along the East Coast and merge with energy diving in from Canada. However, over the past 48 hours, updated models show the Pacific energy pushing ahead too quickly, preventing the necessary phasing of these systems. Without this connection, the storm loses its punch, reducing the chance of a significant snow event.

While I’ll continue to monitor developments, as it stands now, expect only a few inches of snow late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Stay tuned for further updates!

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Tracking Uncertainty: Snowstorm Forecasts Still Evolving for Wednesday-Thursday Storm

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As of this afternoon, there’s still no clear consensus across the models regarding the snowstorm potential from Wednesday evening into Thursday. At a minimum, we’re expecting a light to moderate snow event across the region. However, there’s significant variability in the model projections for how the storm will evolve.

Until this afternoon, the European model (Euro) had been forecasting an all-out blizzard. But the latest Euro run shifted significantly southward, deviating from previous predictions.

On the other hand, the American model (GFS) has trended toward a stronger storm, suggesting a more impactful event for our area. The UKMET and ICON models are also showing a stronger storm scenario.

Given the complexity of the setup, it’s likely we won’t have clearer guidance until at least tomorrow night, if not Monday. The atmosphere is in a delicate balance, and this could lead to a range of potential outcomes, from light snow to more significant impacts.

Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this evolving storm.

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Storm Chance Wednesday Night

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I come to you this afternoon with some bad news:

It looks like our luck of no major storms may have run out. As of this afternoon almost all of the major models are predicting a major winter storm to impact our region starting Wednesday evening. If the models end up being correct, we could be looking at a storm dropping well over a foot of snow across the area.

I will caution that we have a LONG way to go until we know that this storm is coming for sure. It is always possible that the storm does not materialize, but as of now this storm looks to be a legitimate threat that requires close monitoring.