The snowstorm that we have been tracking is well underway throughout the area. Snow will continue to fall throughout the region until this afternoon. The storm will slowly begin to wind down from west to east throughout the afternoon. We continue to be on track for a 10-15″ snowfall throughout the area, with some areas on Long Island exceeding the 15″. Over the next few hours everyone can expect whiteout conditions, and possibly thunder snow. As a matter of fact there was thunder observed in Suffolk a few minutes ago.
As of this afternoons model suite, we remain on track for a major snowstorm beginning tomorrow before sunrise. Snow will begin sometime after 2-3am and pick up in intensity by sunrise. Most areas can expect at least 10-15 inches of snow. However, there will be some areas that recieve over 18″ if they get into the heavier banding. The snow should begin to taper off by mid to late afternoon leaving behind very cold air. Temperatures on Friday may not get out of the teens.
I will update later tonight as the Hi-Res short range models continue to come into range. This is a storm that could easily outperform current forecasts due to the dynamics involved.
Edit: Special note per my family request: The city (Manhattan) can expect to see about a foot as well. The interesting piece to this event is this is likely to stick even on the avenues of Manhattan due to the rate at which the snow will be falling.
Below are the RGEM and NAM models, both of which have continued to increase snowfall totals over our area today.
I’m afraid I’ve got some bad news (Thanks Berg), it looks like the storm is going to exceed my previous forecast. The models are continuing to increase snowfall totals throughout our region. The key to this is a stronger storm forming off the coast tomorrow morning. Based on latest guidance, I am upping my snowfall forecast for our region to 10-15″ with a possibility of more (18 inches+) depending on where the banding sets up. Many have asked for localized forecasts, in the case of this storm the distribution throughout the region should be fairly even within the forecasted range. Except for those areas that end up under heavy banding, which is always very difficult if not impossible to predict. In addition to the snow amounts, the rate at which the snow will fall will be impressive as well, with rates up to three inches an hour. Whiteout conditions will be likely from mid-morning into the afternoon.
Timing: Snow will begin by 3-4am and pickup in intensity by daybreak. Snow will continue throughout the day and begin to taper off by about 3-4pm in the afternoon.
Temperatures will begin dropping late tonight and by tomorrow temperatures will drop into the uppers teens to low 20’s. Friday will remain cold as well. Therefore, do not expect the snow to go anywhere.
Models this evening continue to hold steady in regards to the expected snowfall. The NAM shows our area receiving anywhere from 8-12″ of snow, and the latest run of the RGEM shows some areas receiving over a foot of snow. For now I am holding steady with a forecast of 6-12″ throughout the area. I’ll post more localized specifics tomorrow once we’re closer to the start time. In terms of timing, the snow will begin before sunrise on Thursday, with the heaviest snow falling from 6am on. The snow should taper off from West to East by the mid-afternoon.
For all those looking for a significant to major snowstorm for our area, it looks like you’re getting your wish. This mornings and early afternoons models are in and they ALL trended stronger. There is still plenty of room for the storm to trend stronger as well. Remember when I mentioned the pieces of energy being outside of good data sampling and how that could have an impact? Well that is coming to fruition, as the pieces of energy are being better sampled the models are now shifting, and I don’t think those shifts are done yet.
What does all this mean? It means that we’re safely in the window for a 6-12″ snow storm, with the potential to possibly go higher (which I’d put at 40-50% right now). The storm will start as some light rain early Thursday morning and switch over to snow before sunrise. The storm will continue until mid-day Thursday. While it will not be super long duration, while it is snowing we may see snowfall rates in excess of 2-3″ an hour, which would certainly cause whiteout conditions.
Below is the latest map from the EURO. The Euro is at the top end of the guidance window for snowfall, but it seems reasonable based on the trends of this morning and afternoon.
NAM from this morning which has been trending stronger as well:
Quick morning update: All guidance trended stronger with the storm overnight. The storm still looks to start early Thursday morning and continue throughout the day. If current guidance holds we’ll be well inside the 5-6inch plus range. More detailed updates to come later today.
