A quick update on the weather for today and tomorrow:
A beautiful late Winter Sunday is expected today. Temperatures will rise into the lower and mid 50’s on Long Island. In NYC temperatures may approach 60. Minimal to no clouds are expected as well.
Monday is expected to be similar to today, though temperatures may be a few degrees lower.
I will be posting a full week ahead outlook either later today or tomorrow(more likely tomorrow) . This will include discussion of two possible storms this week.
Last night certainly was eventful in our region. Many stations in our area reported wind gusts of 50-60 MPH leading to multiple downed trees, power lines, and damage to houses. The line of storms that came through were the strongest that our area has seen in several years. Looking forward, I do not expect anything similar to this event in the near future.
Summary:
Friday: Generally sunny, with light winds. Temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30’s.
Saturday: Clear, temperatures in the upper 30’s to around 40.
Sunday: Clear, temperatures in the upper 40’s/low 50’s.
Monday: Partly Cloudy, temperatures in the 50’s possibly approaching 60
Discussion:
The weather for the next several days is expected to be calm, without any weather events of note. Temperatures are modeled to gradually increase over the next several days and the weekend should be very nice weather for this time of the year. Looking further into next week, models are showing a storm for the middle of the week. However, the storm looks to be a rain only event without any snow projected.
There is increasing likelihood of strong storms coming through our area this evening. Currently our region is under a thunderstorm watch. Many areas to our West are under thunderstorm and tornado warnings. Winds in some of the cells are exceeding 70mph.
Summary: Tuesday: Clear in the morning, with conditions deteriorating during the day. Rain expected in the afternoon and evening, there is a chance that at the onset we could see some light snow before a quick changeover to rain. No accumulations are expected. Temperatures in the upper 30’s/low 40’s.
Wednesday: Rain throughout the day. Temperatures steadily rising into the 50’s throughout the day into the evening.
Thursday: Rain in the morning, clearing by the afternoon. Temperatures expected to be in the upper 40’s, possibly low 50’s.
Friday: Clear throughout the day. Temperatures in the 30’s/40’s. Likely dropping throughout the day.
Forecast Discussion:
I am happy to report that all threats of snow are gone from the near term forecast. The NAM and CMC have now come into agreement with the other models regarding tomorrow and the days ahead. The weather will generally be unsettled until Thursday afternoon, but temperatures will be above average for this time of the year. Looking past Thursday the weather pattern looks to be generally calm with seasonable temperatures.
Summary: Monday: Low 40’s no expected precipitation
Tuesday: Cold, chance of snow or rain in the afternoon into the evening. Changing to rain overnight.
Wednesday: It gonna rain
Thursday: Rain in the morning, clearing out for the afternoon. Will be warmest in the morning, temperature is expected to drop throughout the day
Forecast Discussion:
As promised, I have some updates both about the weather for this weekend and the coming week.
First, regarding this evening into Monday morning:
We can expect some light to moderate rain beginning around 6 or 7PM. The rain should end before sunrise on Monday. We will then clear out with temperatures in the low 40’s on Monday.
Once the Monday event clears out, we turn our eyes towards Tuesday and beyond. If the NAM and GGEM are correct, we could be looking at 3-6 inches of snow late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with a changeover to rain late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I will caution that the EURO and GFS do not agree, with the Euro showing a slushy inch or two, and the GFS showing no snow at all. Needless to say there is high uncertainty at this point in time. This will be a now-cast situation.
NAM:
GFS:
Following the Tuesday night event, we can expect unsettled weather through Thursday. A low pressure system will track to the west of the region and bring rain to our area. Temperatures early Thursday could approach 60 degrees as the low pressure system begins to pull away from the region. There is no reason to believe that this system will bring any snow to the area.
Models have trended towards all rain for both storms. The Nam is now showing the Monday event as being warmer and the GFS has it South of the region. For the storm in the middle of next week, it’s looking like a rainstorm with no snow at all.
I’ll post updates over the weekend if anything significant changes.
