Month: February 2016

As of this morning, the storm system set to come through the area on Sunday into Monday is beginning to look more interesting. While we are far from model consensus, some of the short range models are beginning to show more snow coming into the area. As of now it looks like we will start with light to moderate rain on Sunday night, and according to the NAM and SREFs this will then change to snow overnight. Accumulations if the NAM and SREF are correct look to be in the 2-4 inch range. As of now, there is still significant uncertainty if it will change to snow.

For the near term, we can expect some light snow/rain showers later this evening, without any accumulation.Temperatures generally will be in the upper 20’s/lower 30’s overnight and upper 30’s/lower 40’s during the day.

In regards to the storm later in the week, I am holding off on any updates until later today. The models are all over the map and have not come to any consensus at this time.

NAM

Looking at the upcoming modeling it looks like the next few days will be relatively calm. There is a chance of some light snow flurries Friday night into early Saturday morning. Based on current modeling, this will be no more than mood flakes

Moving forward, the weekend looks relatively dry with only a chance of some scattered light rain. Early next week is when things begin to get interesting. First, models are showing a clipper move through the area Monday morning with some light rain.

Once the Monday event passes, we get to the big question mark for the Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday time period. For this period, all the models are showing a storm signal. However, they are not in agreement as to what this will mean for us on Long Island. Currently there are two camps, one showing the storm moving inland and giving us an all rain event. However, the Euro and to some extent the UKMET are showing the storm track offshore and the strong possibility of a snow storm. There is high uncertainty at this time regarding the track, and the storm will need to be watched. At this point in time, I would say 60/40 leaning towards a rain event. However, as we know things can change significantly over a week in the weather world. Stay tuned…

Euro:

GFS:

We’re in store for an interesting week of weather. Temperatures generally will vary from the 50’s to 30’s over the next several days.There is a chance of some light snow Wednesday morning as well, this is not likely to accumulate at all.

On the Horizon we have a storm threat coming up. Models are in good agreement that a storm may approach the area at the beginning of next week in the 2/22-2/24 time frame. Many details are yet to be determined on this, but certainly something to keep an eye on.

Remainder of Today:

Wednesday Morning:

Upcoming Storm: