Goldberg Weather is back from Summer hiatus! I promised that I would post when something interesting was happening weather wise, and there is finally something worth posting. Starting with today, the first true heatwave of the summer will impact our area. Temperatures today ranged from the low to mid-90’s throughout the area. The next few days will continue to feature the same heat. As a matter of fact, the heat may not break over the next week with highs in the 90’s continuing through at least Thursday. In addition to the heat, we will continue to see below normal precipitation. Outside of a passing thunderstorm no significant rainfall is expected over the next few days. Which is not good for our area since we are already experiencing a moderate drought.
Summary: The next few days will be hot, with temperatures in the 90’s and little to no rain exacerbating the drought conditions.
As many of you have pointed out, it has been awhile since my last post. I haven’t posted, simply because there hasn’t been anything interesting weather wise going on. While some may say the last week and a half was interesting, I’d argue no, it was pretty terrible. Moving forward through the Spring and Summer, I will continue to be limited in posting unless something interesting is coming, be it a strong Thunderstorm or something more (Hurricane!?!?).
Looking forward, the weather finally seems to have turned a corner, with the Omega blocking gone and a more normal spring pattern returning. As of now the models show temperatures in the 60’s to the lower 70’s for the remainder of the week. The only downer in the long term forecast comes on Sunday, where temperatures may not get out of the 50’s. But this is a long way off and if you were to have looked at this week a few days ago you would’ve thought it would still be miserable weather.
I hope that everyone enjoys the week ahead and the Spring weather that is upon us.
The storm continues to be on track to impact our region starting late this afternoon. Snow will start out light and possibly not accumulate, overnight it will increase in intensity and that’s when it is expected that we will see the most accumulations. The snow should exit our area by early Monday morning.
In terms of totals there is still high variability on the models, but overall these look like reasonable calls:
Nassau- 3-6
Suffolk- 4-8 (Possibly more closer to the east end)
NYC- 2-4 (Less in Manhattan more in Queens. The heat island of Manhattan may prevent much accumulation at all on the streets)
Unfortunately the 18Z models just came in, and they moved towards slightly more snow than the last update. They have moved back into the 3-6 and possibly slightly more range. This goes with the theme that I discussed earlier of the models varying widely in their depictions of the system. More updates to come later tonight or early tomorrow morning.
A winter weather advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service for tomorrow’s storm. There is still some variation between models in total snowfall, but the NWS call of 2-4 seems reasonable at this time. More updates later.
... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon Sunday to 6 am EDT
Monday...
The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for snow... which is in effect from noon Sunday to 6 am
EDT Monday.
* Locations... Nassau... western Suffolk... and Middlesex counties.
* Hazard types... snow.
* Snow accumulations... 2 to 4 inches.
* Timing... a mix of light rain and snow develops early Sunday
afternoon... then changes to snow late in the afternoon. Snow
will continue through Sunday night... tapering off by Monday
morning.
* Impacts... visibilities will be reduced in spots due to blowing
snow. Travel will remain difficult due to accumulating snow.
* Winds... northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.
* Temperatures... in the lower 30s.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while
driving.
Remember when I said that there’s plenty of time for things to change and that anything could still happen? Well it looks like that may be coming true. Overnight, almost all of the models trended towards the GFS/NAM solution and less snow for the area. I would not say the snow threat is totally gone, since there are still many models showing light snow come through the area on Sunday night into Monday. BUT the threat of 6+ inches of snow is now gone. We’re now talking a maximum snowfall in the range of 2-4 inches and the likelihood of less than that is increasing. This still requires close observation, and we could still trend back to slightly more snow, since there is still a low pressure system just off the coast.
Below are some examples of the wild changes we can see on models in 24-48 hours. Anyone remember the blizzard in January? Models were struggling to firm up totals until the storm began and it ended up tracking a bit further Northwest than originally forecast.
Oh and another bit of good news, which I’ll expand on in a later update: The weather will warm up again next week!
GFS:
This is the GFS from Thursday night, check out the expansive precipitation shield and the low close into the coast.
Now look at the GFS from early this morning, note the low further east, with a smaller precipitation shield. Also check out the shape of the circle around the L, that’s indicative of a low that’s less well organized.
NAM:
Here is the NAM from Friday morning, it has the low tucked into the coast and fairly well organized.
Below is the NAM from this morning for the same time frame as above. Now you see two very poorly organized low pressure centers, with very light precipitation in the area. As a matter of fact, often when you see a depiction such as this no precipitation falls at all.
Finally, here is the NAM forecast for early Monday morning. It does show some light snow in the area, but it may not be enough to really stick around once the sun comes up and the temperatures rise during the day.
