Category: Uncategorized

As I mentioned earlier today, we will be experiencing a significant winter storm over the next day and a half. Right now many may be experiencing sleet and other mixed precipitation. This will taper off tonight, and lead to a lull until around sunrise. Snow will pick up in intensity during the morning and continue as heavy snow into tomorrow evening. The models are showing the storm ending anywhere between 1- 7am on Thursday. To start, the snow will be the heavy wet snow that we saw during the last storm, but as the day goes on it will become lighter and more powdery as the upper atmosphere cools. By the end of the storm, you can expect anywhere from 8-14″ of snow, with some areas actually falling in the 12-16″ range depending on where the banding sets up during the day tomorrow.

Just a quick update on the latest models: NAM just showed 8-14″+ area wide, RGEM is at around 12″ area wide, GFS is over a foot…Based on this, I’m forecasting that you should be prepared for an 8-14″+ snowstorm…More updates later today.

So it looks like my leaning against a storm from last night was wrong. Models today have made a significant jump towards a colder and snowier solution. The key to all this is a piece of energy over Maine that is now modeled to move further north than originally thought. This allows the series of low-pressure systems that will be tracking south of our region to track further north. For our area, this means a much snowier and wetter solution. I will provide an in-depth breakdown later tonight, but in summary, it looks like we should now expect a region-wide 4-8″ snowfall. This will feature rain and sleet to start late tomorrow night, a lull, and then more precipitation likely in the form of all snow on Wednesday…Much more to come later tonight.

Many of you have probably heard about the chance for a storm sometime between Tuesday and Thursday this week. While the time period does need close monitoring, I do not believe as of this evening that we will be in the bullseye of the storm. Therefore, I will not be providing a detailed forecast tonight.  I will keep you updated, and share updates as needed, especially if it starts to look like we will be impacted by the storm.

We are on track for a light to moderate snowfall across the area. Snow will begin over night and continue through the morning. There is still some uncertainty in regards to snowfall totals, but for now I’m leaning towards the lower end of my below forecast. The low appears to be tracking slightly further east than earlier modeled, which would reduce snowfall totals for our area. Additionally, short-range high-resolution modeling has not been enthusiastic with snowfall totals. The biggest impact from this storm will be the snow occurring during the morning commute, especially for Long Island drivers. At minimum by the time you get up in the morning all surfaces will be coated so certainly allow extra time for your morning commute.

Forecast: