This update will be short since more models are still coming out. A more detailed post will come a bit later.
Models continue to disagree on exact snow totals for tomorrow, and therefore it is very difficult to issue a definitive forecast (Yes I know I sound like a typical weather hack). While the no-snow models are gone, there is still a question of the actual totals. For now, the general expectation is for 2-5/3-6 area wide. If you live out in Suffolk you can expect more than Western Nassau and NYC. This storm will feature a tight gradient with significantly more snow the further East on Long Island you go.
There are two storms that we are tracking over the next few days. The first is for Friday morning: Snow will overspread the region overnight tonight and end by Friday morning between 9 and 11am. Total snowfall for the Friday storm will be 1-3 inches throughout the area. While not a significant event, it will be enough to cause headaches during the morning commute.
The more significant potential storm for our area comes mid-day on Saturday. As of now some models have it skirting just offshore, but the NAM has it impacting our region. The models that have it offshore continue to trend closer to the coast. At this time, I am leaning towards a minor event, but the NAM did get one of our surprise storms last winter correct. If the NAM is correct, we could see over 6″ of snow by the end of the storm.
The big wild card with this storm is the strength of an area of energy dropping in from the North Pole. As of now there is limited data on this energy since it is in a data sparse region. If the energy comes in stronger than modeled, the storm will track closer to the coast and be stronger than modeled. By this time tomorrow the energy will be much better sampled and we’ll have a good idea of what to expect during the day Saturday.
As of now here is a model roundup for Saturday:
NAM: 6″ Plus
GFS: Just off the coast
RGEM: Skirting the area with a few inches
EURO: Comes close to the area and a few possible inches
Models are beginning to hint at a potential snow event for early Friday morning. This event could have a significant impact on the Friday morning commute. As of now we can expect anywhere from 1-6 inches of snow, an unusually wide range for a prediction.
The reason for this wide range is the variability on the models. The Hi-Res short range models are beginning to show snow amounts over 4 inches. While the global models are sticking to less than 3 inches at most. We will have to continue to monitor this potential event and hopefully by tomorrow afternoon, we’ll have a better idea of the true impact.
Oh and also the global models have a fairly significant storm just off the coast on Sunday. Some bring some snow into the area, but there’s great uncertainty regarding this storm as of now.
Updates to come on both events…
Below are some of the model storm totals as of this afternoon:
