Month: March 2016

I hope that everyone has been enjoying the beautiful weather the last week. I know I’ve been slacking on the updates, but
we’ve been in such a nice weather pattern I didn’t think it was necessary. However, I now return with some potentially bad news. The weather pattern appears to be shifting, and in a potentially negative direction for those enjoying the weather we have been having.

First the near term:
Thursday and Friday, will feature some periods of light rain and then clearing (Early morning hours and mid-day Thursday, Mid-day Friday). Temperatures will be in the upper 40’s and 50’s. The weekend will feature temperatures in the upper 30’s and low 40’s with clear skies.

The “Event”:

Now for the bad news that I alluded to earlier: Models are beginning to show a moderate to strong storm off the east coast late Sunday night into Monday. While we are still about 5 days out from the arrival of the storm in the region, many models are beginning to show a snowstorm for the Northeast. If the GFS and EURO are to be believed, snow will start very late Sunday night and continue into Monday morning. While we are a long way out for totals, many models are showing at least 4″ of snow, with some showing more the further east you get on the island. At this point, we are a few models trends away from 6″+ on Long Island and in the City. With it being mid-March, it is far too early to say that this is a lock. But at this point in time this storm bears close watching.

Summary:

Saturday: Temperatures in the upper 30’s to around 40. Skies will be partly cloudy, with increasing clouds in the afternoon and evening.
Sunday: Temperatures will start in the upper 20’s to low 30’s, and reach around 40 by the afternoon. There is a slight chance of light non-accumulating snow in the morning.
Monday: Temperatures in the upper 40’s to around 50. Partly cloudy skies.

Next week is looking to be Spring like based on current modeling. Both the GFS and Euro are in agreement that the middle of next week will feature temperatures in the 50’s and 60’s. The GFS even hints that Wednesday may hit 70. Additionally, they are showing that until Thursday there is no rain expected.

Have a great weekend!

Here is a quick update on tomorrow’s “event”:

Light snow will enter the area early Friday morning and last until late morning. Total accumulations will be a coating to an inch. Temperatures in the morning will start in the mid-upper 20’s and rise steadily throughout the day to the mid 30’s by the afternoon.

I’ll provide a full update on the weekend and the warm-up next week tomorrow. (Sneak preview: 70’s may be possible next week)

Summary:

Thursday: Highs in lower to mid 30’s. Clouds building in later in the day.
Friday: Light snow in the morning, clearing out by the afternoon. Total accumulation coating-2 inches. Highs in the mid 30’s.
Saturday: Highs in upper 30’s to low 40’s. Skies should be clear with light winds.
Sunday: Highs in upper 30’s. Generally cloudy, with a minor chance of light snow/light rain.

Discussion:

The storm for Thursday into Friday continues to trend further south. This is mostly due to the low becoming stronger than previously forecast. What this means for our area is less snow than previously indicated. At this time, models are generally showing a coating to 2 inches for our area. With less snow as you go towards NYC, and more towards the east end. After the system passes through the region by mid-day Friday skies should begin to clear and a seasonable weekend is on tap. Looking past this weekend, most models are hinting at a significant warm up. Many are indicating that temperatures may rise into the mid-60’s with a few even showing highs approaching 70 degrees. Based on all these models, Friday is the beginning of the end for the winter of 2016. Spring appears to be coming quick!

Some of you may be wondering why I didn’t provide an update the last two days as I promised. Well the answer is that I was waiting for more model runs to come in before sharing with you information on later this week.

Before we get to that, let me give you a summary of the next few days:

Summary:

Wednesday: Rainy during the day, clearing out late. Temperatures in mid to upper 40’s
Thursday: Sunny in morning, becoming cloudy throughout the day. High’s in the upper 20’s to low 30’s.
Friday: Snow on and off throughout the day, temperatures in the upper 20’s to lower 30’s. Accumulations of 1-3 inches expected as of now. See discussion below for further details

Discussion:

Wednesday looks to be a rainy day, clearing out by the end of the day. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40’s during the day. The rainfall is expected to be a nuisance more than anything. Based on current modeling it should begin in the overnight hours and be through the region by mid-day tomorrow.

Thursday looks to overall be a generally nice day with seasonable temperatures in the low 30’s. It will become progressively more cloudy throughout the day, and temperatures will begin dropping later in the day. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20’s in the evening.

Now comes the big question mark for Friday. Models have slowly come into agreement that a low pressure system will develop south of our area early Friday morning. This low pressure system is expected to stay well south of the area. However, snow is expected to develop on the northern edge and extend into our area. The big question now is how far north does the storm track. While we are not in-store for a major storm we likely will see some accumulating snow. Models as of now range for 1-3 to 3-6 inches for snowfall. In terms of timing, the snow should begin overnight Thursday into Friday and end during the day on Friday. It currently appears that it is timed perfectly to be an annoyance for the Friday morning rush, but this is subject to change as the models are still trying to lockdown exact specifics of the low’s track.

I’m not going to share information about this weekend yet, but past this weekend models are hinting at a warmup for the area. Some are showing temperatures reaching into the mid-60’s. But in weather model world, next week is light years.

Will keep you updated.